The
mobile industry’s $140 billion contribution to GDP in 2023 is projected to
reach $170 billion by 2030 if key connectivity barriers are addressed. These
are insights from the flagship Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 Report unveiled by GSMA. Mobile technology is essential in supporting development goals across
key sectors like healthcare, education, and finance, driving economic growth by
expanding internet access and digital services.
As
digitalisation accelerates, the report highlights that 4G expansion is set to
drive connectivity, projected to account for half of all connections by 2030.
However, a significant coverage gap remains, with 13% of the population still
unreached, and a 60% usage gap affecting those who live within coverage areas
but face barriers to get online, such as unaffordable devices, limited digital
skills, or online safety concerns.
In
addition to these connectivity challenges, the region faces high operating
costs, inflationary pressures, and energy price volatility. Despite these
obstacles, emerging trends such as generative AI and satellite partnerships
present innovative solutions to bridge gaps across sectors. Broader API
solutions, such as GSMA Open Gateway, which
recently launched security APIs in South Africa, are poised to enhance digital
security and simplify services as these initiatives expand regionally.
Addressing these issues is essential to unlocking the socio-economic potential
of mobile connectivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Our
findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges
facing Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile ecosystem,” said Angela Wamola, Head
of Sub-Saharan Africa, GSMA. “To fully realise the benefits of
connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers, and stakeholders to
address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion, and foster
collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact.”
Key Findings from the 2024 Report:
Persistent Usage Gap: Mobile internet penetration in Sub-Saharan
Africa reached 27% by the end of 2023, yet a substantial usage gap of 60%
remains. This gap represents millions who live within network coverage but face
barriers such as device affordability, digital skills deficits, and concerns
around online security. Globally, 3.1 billion people - 39% of the
global population - are impacted by the usage gap. Sub-Saharan
Africa is the least connected region, with the largest usage gap worldwide.
Expanding 4G Coverage and Early 5G Growth: The region’s 4G adoption is forecast to reach 50%
by 2030, overtaking 3G as the primary technology. Although 5G adoption remains
in its early stages, it is projected to reach 17% of total connections by 2030,
primarily in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.
Economic Impact and Infrastructure Needs for 5G: By 2030, 5G alone is expected to contribute $10
billion to the region’s economy, accounting for 6% of the mobile sector’s total
economic impact. The report emphasises the need for progressive spectrum
policies, particularly the release of mid-band spectrum, to support long-term
growth and equitable digital access. Additionally, 5G Fixed Wireless Access
(FWA) is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries such as
Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, addressing demand
for high-speed connectivity in underserved areas.
Strengthening Digital Security: South Africa became the first country in
Sub-Saharan Africa to implement GSMA Open Gateway APIs, focusing on fraud
prevention and security with Number Verification and SIM Swap APIs. This
initiative is part of broader efforts across the region to improve digital
security, particularly within digital banking.
Generative AI Potential: Generative AI is expected to contribute up to
$1.5 trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly
using AI for customer engagement and network optimization. MTN and Vodacom, for
instance, are deploying AI-powered initiatives to enhance operational
efficiency, although the region faces a shortage of skilled AI
professionals.
The
report advocates for a series of critical actions to ensure sustainable growth
and digital inclusion:
Affordability Reforms: High costs remain a barrier to mobile access,
with the report calling for reduced taxes on the sector, such as lowering
import duties on handsets and cutting activation fees, to make services
affordable and accessible for all.
Revitalised Universal Service Funds (USFs): Many USFs in Sub-Saharan Africa are
underperforming, often hindered by inefficiencies. The report calls for reforms
to improve transparency, streamline disbursements, and direct funds toward
impactful initiatives, such as digital literacy programmes in underserved
areas.
Progressive Spectrum Policy: With increasing data demands, the report urges
governments to release additional spectrum, particularly in the 6 GHz band, and
to adopt policies that ensure efficient, affordable, and environmentally
sustainable mobile network expansion.
